Community App May Report

Snapshot of the month

Nearly 20,000 players have joined the Community App since its launch. The competition has never been this intense with bitcoin trading sideways. Making the right prediction is hugely challenging for all players, the pressure in the rankings goes from the top to the bottom: it's extremely tight!  

We are pleased to announce that our hall of fame is well populated with 70 players who have collected all the badges. More than 130 other players are very close to the holy grail!

As it has now become a monthly custom of ours, this report shares with you key statistics and insights on players' performances and updates on your chances of receiving rewards. (We are paying particular attention to the competition’s fairness to ensure that new players are rewarded if they are good forecasters).

In addition to the interview with one of our players, we give you a very useful tip to easily earn +3000 points and have the possibility to take more risk on your forecasts to catch up with your opponents!        

global statistics
forecast statistics
streak statistics
badge statistics

Country Breakdown

Each time we check the players of the Community App continue to spread, a little more, around the world! Growth was strong in Western Europe with a particular focus on Italy. On the other side of the Atlantic, addiction has taken place in Brazil. In the east, Russia and the Philippines are still as passionate about the evolution of the bitcoin price. As the summer began, Canada woke up with ever-increasing interest.

SwissBorg Community App players by country April 2019
SwissBorg Community App players by country May 2019

Community Analysis

Accuracy: Community & Top Players

The community has suffered a little this month. The overall accuracy is only 50%, no better than a coin flip. As has the CyBorg predictor, you have suffered from the unpredictability of the trend. Last month, the trend was clearly upwards. This month, on the other hand, Bitcoin was exchanged sideways with some brutal movements. In this type of market, as discussed further below, it is recommended to reduce the risk or wait for a more defined trend.

As shown in the table below, the bets that predicted an ‘up’ trend are in general more often accurate than the forecasts that bet on ‘down’. Once again, it reflects the bullish trend at the beginning of  the competition. As far as downward movements are concerned, the community currently has an accuracy of only 32%. This may improve on the day the trend is bearish. But will this happen in the medium term?

Bitcoin Prediction accuracy SwissBorg

Despite an average overall performance, we continue to have some star players that are listed below. Our leader in terms of points earned with the forecasts has earned more than 200,000 points with an accuracy of more than 70%. He joined the game 10 days late. Congratulations to him! A population of players with accuracy of above 75% is statistically notable.

Risk Management and accuracy SwissBorg Community App

Accuracy: Unlucky Players

Chance is cruel! We have identified a player who failed his forecast 16 times in a row. Ten players with more than 20 forecasts have an accuracy of less than 25% with the worst at 17%! In terms of risk management, the worst player is down by 78’700 pts.

Persevere and don't forget that you still have a good chance of climbing the rankings. In May, some new players managed to climb to the top 200 within a month!

Tip: Don't flip a coin, check out our market tab and the Daily Bitcoin Analysis and persevere, your results will improve!

Risk Management

Risk management over time, in other words, the points earned solely from forecasts, are presented below for the entire community with 2 best risk managers starting in April and 2 in May.  We, also, highlighted our CyBorg predictor which has been beaten by only 0.40% of the players for now. You may notice that the CyBorg predictor had a long period during which it made almost no bets. It is mostly due to the fact that the bot analysed the predictions in that period as less reliable.

It is clear that, for the CyBorg predictor as well as for the best players, the number of points won has been slowing since the market stabilised. It is interesting to show that our algorithm, which learns from history, has adjusted its risk to limit losses when the market was undecided. A strategy to replicate for real players!

Risk management SwissBorg Community App

This slowdown allows competition to be tightened and players arriving late in the game to progress quickly. Some players are already in the top 200 even though they started the game less than a month ago

Tip: Consult the market tab and read the “Daily Bitcoin Analysis” in the Learn tab for more information about the current market and adapt the risk you want to take to the current trend.

Forecasting pattern

Being one of the best players doesn’t necessarily mean betting as soon as possible to potentially get more points. It means betting at the right time when the odds are in your favor. If the market is traded sideways, you may want to wait for an appropriate moment such as a breakthrough resistance or a support.

Forecast Accuracy SwissBorg Community app

The bets occurrence displayed are one of a player that often waits a few hours or even days before placing a second bet. In total there are 26 days that were “not used”. With this approach, he managed to have an overall accuracy of 70% and placed almost half of his forecasts down, a calculated move in the actual market!

Community Trend

Since the beginning of the game, you have always been mostly bullish. When the price rose dramatically, you mostly followed the price evolution. But, you reacted quickly when the price had corrections.

It is interesting to highlight that you were expecting more and more a fall in price as the price went up. This is particularly noticeable when the price failed to continue its rally above $9,000: the community trend dropped sharply at the end of May. In other words, you were expecting a strong correction.

On the other hand, as soon as the price consolidated and showed signs of strength, the community trend started to rise again to be close to its highest level. This strong bullish sentiment is also found on google searches for the word “bitcoin”.

Conclusion: you, as a whole community are optimistic but not naive, a price never rises without going through periods of corrections and it is healthy to anticipate them when the price reaches key levels.

Bitcoin price vs user sentiment SwissBorg

Tip: Read the “Daily Bitcoin Analysis” in the Learn tab for more information related to the current market conditions and impacting news!

Tip of the month: Get 3000 easy points

Wondering how to earn 3000 extra points and move up the rankings ? Invite your friends to join the game!

Just follow this two steps process:

  1. Click on “invite”
  2. Share your code across the channel of your choice (personalised message works better than mass spamming)
SwissBorg community app dashboard

For the referral to be successful your friend need have completed the registration and enter your referral code. It can be either enter at the time of the registration or after by going into your profile in the top left corner and clicking on “referral code”

SwissBorg community app referral

Why are referrals important?

  • Each successful referral code earn you (and the referee) 3000 extra points
  • Every new player increase the prize pool by USD 1
  • The most successful introducer will have the opportunity to work with us on the Wealth app promotion and earn some extra rewards.

Interview of the month

Vlad Tregubov has been a crypto enthusiast since the early Bitcoin days running startups that contribute to the adoption of cryptocurrency.

He clearly understands not just the financial and technological impact cryptocurrency brings to society but the social change this space has for mankind.

Competition Chance Benchmarking

We are very attentive to the points system put in place. Indeed, we want this game to be fair and that newcomers always have a chance to win! That is why we have built a benchmark to identify if the point system needs to be adjusted.

Our benchmark:

In the next two months, at any time, a player who starts the game must have at least a 50% chance of being in the top 10,000.

If this is not the case, we will adjust the points to return to this probability.

Competition Chance Benchmarking

As shown in the figure above, today, you have more than:

  • 70% chance of being in the top 10’000
  • 12% chance of being in the top 1’000
  • 1.5% chance of being in the top 100

So, if you download the application now or if your ranking is bad, you still have a good chance of being among the best players! This has been demonstrated above by our best player as well as several players arriving after the start of the game.

What you may have missed

Bastien Muster
Head of Data
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